Milan vs Girona
Over 2.75 Total Goals at 1.97 with Bet365 - 2 units
Under Sérgio Conceição, Milan’s matches have averaged 3.0 goals per game, which is notable given three of their last five fixtures came against Italy’s two best defenses (Juventus twice and Inter).
Milan will be weaker defensively without Tomori and Thiaw, with Pavlovic and Gabbia expected to start at center-back; data suggests Pavlovic negatively impacts Milan’s defensive metrics but tends to boost their attacking numbers.
A draw does little for Milan, who sit 15th and need to push for a Top 8 spot, so an aggressive approach is expected. The same is true for Girona who really need to pull off an upset here.
Girona have undershot their xG but still average 1.42 xG per 90 in the Champions League and must attack here to break into the Top 24.
Their defense is vulnerable: when visiting top-tier teams, they conceded 22 shots and more than 2.3 xGA each time; removing matches against Slovan Bratislava and Sturm Graz, Girona allow 2.24 xGA per 90.
Girona have struggled against stronger opponents in both the Champions League and La Liga
What stands out a lot compared to last season is just how vulnerable they have been on the counter. (current rank 18th in La Liga per 90)
With both sides really needing a win here and both teams having flaws defensively I expect a relatively high scoring game.
