Villarreal vs PSG
Villarreal +1 Asian Handicap at 1.95 with Pinnacle - 1.5 unit (1.91 min)
Bet105 at 1.93
We don’t believe PSG should be so short here with 4 key starters missing. Kvara, Marquinhos, Mendes, and Dembele won’t play any role in this game
Let’s start with Dembele, he’s a big deal, he has 6 G+A this season in 3 UCL matches, last season he had 10 G+A in the UCL from 11 starts
PSG scored 2.67 goals per game across all comps with him on the pitch last season (2.31 was their average). This season that all comps number is up to 3.08 goals per 90 with him on the pitch
Next Kvara, 16 G+A in last season UCL and 2nd only to Dembele for goals overall
Mendes probably the best LB in world football had 7 assists and 6 goals in all comps last season and will be another loss as will their defensive leader and captain Marquinhos
PSG should line up like this: Safonov - Hakimi (c), Zabarnyi, Pacho, Hernandez (or Zaïre-Emery) - Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz - Akliouche (or Godts), Torres (or Mayulu), Doué
As we can see their attacking output should be severely hit here, Akliouche, Godts, Torres, Mayulu, Doué are good players but not at the level of the players unavailable and let’s not forget the role Barcola played in those last two UCL campaigns too.
Now PSG are weaker defensively too and they are missing two key pieces here, across all comps PSG are allowing 1.75xGA per 90
Remarkably PSG have kept just two clean sheets this season, away to Brest and at home to Lyon.
Villarreal haven’t lost by more than one goal all season, that’s 14 games across all comps including Liverpool (4-3), Dortmund (3-2), Real Madrid (1-0) and Atletico (2-2), all away from home.
They’ve scored in all 3 UCL games, 3 at Anfield, 3 against Napoli and 2 in Dortmund, that’s 8 goals in 3 games. In La Liga they’ve been a lot better than their results show, averaging 2.05 xG per game (2.87 xG away to Atletico, 3.16 at Alavés, 2.51 against Elche) and only 15 goals from 11 games to show for it
Villarreal score against the better sides too, 11 goals in 6 games against Liverpool, Napoli, Dortmund, Real Madrid, Atletico and Betis. PSG’s back line without Marquinhos and Mendes is weaker than most of those
Last season’s disaster UCL campaign might have put you off this team but worth remembering they ended the league phase with a +0.4xGD per 90 at home, and only got xG’d by one team… Man City