Chelsea vs Arsenal
Arsenal Over 1.5 Team Goals at 2.44 with Pinnacle - 2 units
Arsenal created strong attacking numbers in both league meetings with Chelsea last season, putting up 1.81 and 1.90 xG. With their attacking metrics improved across the board this season compared to last, they look well placed to match or better those figures here.
Arsenal have scored at least two goals in each of their last six matches, including three against a Bayern Munich side that most models rate as the second or third best club side in the world at the moment. That underlines the current ceiling of this attack.
The recent head-to-head record is very encouraging. Arsenal have scored 12 goals in their last four league meetings with Chelsea, and they have found the net in each of the last seven clashes between the sides.
Arsenal’s attacking output away from home over the last 12 months has been exceptional, averaging 1.89 goals per 90 minutes with an identical 1.89 xG per 90. That consistency on the road adds confidence to a goals-based angle.
Chelsea’s last ten home matches against sides positioned in the top six have seen an average of 3.4 goals per game, with Chelsea conceding 1.5 on average. Their home profile in these fixtures tends to be open and relatively high scoring.
Chelsea have only hosted one elite side in the league this season, Liverpool. They won the game, but they allowed 1.83 expected goals against, all from open play, which suggests they remain vulnerable when facing top-level attacks.
