Genoa vs Roma
Roma to win at 2.03 with Pinnacle - 2 units
Roma’s form over their last 6 games has been notably stronger at both ends - 2.07 xG (season avg: 1.73) and 0.66 xGA (season avg: 1.04) per 90.
Roma beat Genoa 3-1 in their last meeting.
Genoa have real limitations against top sides. Despite looking decent under De Rossi in other contexts, they are W0 D2 L8 in their last 10 against top-6 opposition, conceding 2.00 goals per game on average. Losses to Inter (twice), Atalanta (twice), Napoli, and Roma in their last meeting all support this.
Roma, in contrast, are W8 D0 L2 with 19 scored and 5 conceded in their last 10 against bottom-half sides
The absentees in attack (Ferguson, Dovbyk, Soulé, Dybala) look worse on paper than they are in practice. Only Soulé has been a regular starter; Donny Malen has come in and outperformed all of them with 0.95 G+A per 90 across all competitions.
Genoa’s results this season are also somewhat inflated by context - they’ve received the second-most penalties in Serie A and opponents have averaged 0.19 red cards per game against them (only Parma have seen more opponent dismissals). Strip that out and the underlying picture is less flattering.
De Rossi has faced Gasperini twice and been outclassed both times.
