Iraq vs Indonesia
Bet: Iraq to win at 1.87 with Pinnacle – 2 units
Analysis:
Iraq dominated Indonesia in their most recent meeting, winning comfortably while generating 2.19 xG and conceding just 0.32 xG with only one shot on target allowed.
They also crushed Indonesia 5-1 two years ago in World Cup qualifying, underlining the gulf in class.
This fixture is being played at a neutral venue in Saudi Arabia, in R4 all games in this group are being played in Saudi.
Indonesia’s defensive record remains a major concern, having conceded an average of 2.5 goals per 90 across the last 12 months of World Cup qualifiers.
Iraq, by contrast, have been far more robust, allowing only 0.9 xGA per 90 in the same period, including strong defensive showings against South Korea.
In Indonesia’s last match (vs Saudi) the xG and scoreline looks tight but they conceded 3 goals off 2.83xGA and both their goals came from the penalty spot, take away the penalties this was a game they were totally dominated in.
Iraq currently rank as the 7th-best side in Asia, ahead of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, and China and it doesn’t appear like the market is showing them respect, this is a team that can hang with the best in Asia
Under new manager Graham Arnold (formerly of Australia), Iraq have made an excellent start, three wins from four, with their only defeat coming against Asia’s second-ranked team.
