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Lens vs Lille
Bet: Lens to win at 2.45 (Pinnacle/Betfair SB)
Stake: 1.75 units
Lens come into this after a strong performance away at PSG. The 2-0 scoreline doesn’t reflect the game: they created enough to score and were unlucky to concede twice from long-range strikes by Bradley Barcola.
At home, Lens are consistently strong. Over the last 12 months of Ligue 1 games at Stade Bollaert, they have produced 2.05 xG per 90 while conceding 1.36.
They undershot their xG last season but were among the top sides in the league for home chance creation. This season they are already the best creators at home.
Lille did win here last season in a tight match, but 9 of their starting XI that day are now either injured, sold, or loaned out.
Lille’s results this season flatter them: they drew with Brest but deserved to lose, beat Monaco with their only shot on target, defeated Lorient who look the weakest team in Ligue 1, and beat Toulouse after a red card swung the game in their favour.
A lot of quality has been lost from Lille’s squad this summer: Chevalier, Diakité, Zhegrova, Gudmundsson, Jonathan David, Angel Gomes and Cabella are all gone.
Injuries add to their problems with starters Haraldsson, Alexsandro and Thomas Meunier unavailable.
Continue reading….
