Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Freiburg +1.75 AH at 1.86 with Bet365 - 2 units
Bayern have covered this spread three times on the road this season, against Kiel (17th), Werder Bremen (9th) and Bochum (18th)
Looking at a bigger sample they have only covered this spread in 5 of their last 21 on the road
Bayern have failed to cover this spread in three of their last four visits to Freiburg.
Bayern are coming off an away game in the UCL where they were handed an embarrassing 3-0 loss to Feyenoord and also lost Alphonso Davies to injury for 6 weeks.
In previous games following a road UCL game we saw Bayern draw 3-3 with Frankfurt and lose 2-1 to Mainz.
Freiburg rank 7th for npxGA this season and 5th best for the quality of chances conceded per 90
They have also avoided defeat in 5 of their last 10 home matches against Top 6 opponents
When these two met at the Allianz at the start of the season Bayern only put up 1.89xG and got off 3 shots on target (one of which was a penalty)
Looking at Freiburg’s home games we see a pretty robust side with an xG supremacy of +0.79 per 90 and just one loss all season here
Lastly, Bayern’s backline could take on unfamiliar look tomorrow, there is talk of Eric Dier starting ahead of Upamecano and as we know Davies is out for 6 weeks and Laimer is suspended
