Netherlands vs Greece
Greece +1.00 Asian Handicap at 2.00 with Pinnacle and Bet105 - 2 units (min 1.96)
Greece are up to 24th in the World on Elo ratings and rank 22nd for the most valuable International squads in the game today ahead of the likes of Uruguay, Nigeria, Japan etc
From the last round of UNL games we saw them defeat Serbia with a monster underlying xG, beat Germany rather fortuitously (but must be stated defended excellently) drew with the Netherlands in a game they probably should have won and then drew 0-0 with Germany with another robust defensive display
Netherlands will be without their defensive leader and captain Van Dijk here as well as Hato, Aké, Brobbey, Gravenberch and the long time absentee Xavi Simons
The Netherlands were more porous in their last UNL games under new coach Xavi with 1.48xGA per 90, with Virgil out I wouldn’t be surprised to see Greece create something similar or higher
Remarkably, the Dutch have kept just a single clean sheet from competitive football over the last 12 months, that came at home to Lithuania who are the 7th worst team in UEFA
Serbia lost all four of their group games and still put up 1.54xG and 1.49xG in their two meetings with the Dutch
Greece haven’t lost by more than a single goal in any of their last 10 games, and they are unbeaten in their last 5 on the road with wins in both Germany and Serbia
Germany and the Netherlands took 57 shots across their three games with Greece and generated just 4.72xG from them, about 0.08 per shot
From their last 30 competitive games the Netherlands have won by 2 or more goals 10 times, those came against Malta (twice), Finland (twice), Lithuania, Hungary, Bosnia, Romania, Sweden and Tunisia
Against everyone else in that sample they have 4 wins from 17, all by a single goal, with 10 draws
Poland came to Amsterdam last year, sat in a 5-4-1 low block and held them to 0.72xG in a 1-1 draw
All things considered we think the value is with the Greeks again.