Brighton vs Chelsea
This fixture was just played in the FA Cup and despite the three goals being scored we only had 13 total attempts from both teams on goal with a little over 1.00xG combined from both sides.
Chelsea really created nothing in this match and were fortunate to score from GK error.
Brighton are unbeaten in 7 of their last 10 at home when taking on teams positioned in the Top 6
Across all competitions they have a +0.5 xG supremacy here and have lost only 3 times, against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup, against Crystal Palace, and against Everton who created about 0.06 npxG over 90 minutes
Chelsea will be without Jackson in attack here which will weaken them (9 goals 5 assists) Nkunku will stand in. Nkunku doesn’t have a lot of minutes in the league this season but we can see Chelsea are weaker defensively when he starts (Average team xGA is 2.08 per 90 with him on the pitch)
