8 plays across Friday and Saturday. my biggest card of the season. Sassuolo vs Verona is free below so you can see exactly how I break down a match. The other 7 are behind the paywall. If you’re not subscribed yet, this is the post to convince you
Sassuolo vs Verona
Verona +0.75 Asian Handicap at 1.9 with Pinnacle - 2 units
Both sides are missing key players and Verona are likely worse off on paper, but this looks like a market overreaction
Sassuolo are without two important pieces in Matic and starting CB Muharemovic. Verona’s injury list is longer with starters Orban and Bernede missing along with several squad players (Gagliardini, Belghali, Serdar etc.) but even accounting for all of that, Sassuolo’s price is far too short here
Verona are rooted to the foot of the table and have only avoided defeat in 4 of their last 10 against bottom half teams, which doesn’t look great on the surface
But very little separates the two sides in attacking output. Sassuolo average 1.09 xG per match, Verona 0.98
In terms of xGA, Verona actually have the edge. They’ve only allowed 1.32 xGA per match this season while Sassuolo have allowed 1.42
Verona have also brought in reinforcements during the winter window, spending roughly €14m to bolster their defence and adding striker Kieron Bowie from Hibs
Their new coach has two games under his belt after being promoted from the youth team. A 0-0 with Pisa and a loss to Parma, but we can largely attribute that Parma result to Gift Orban getting himself sent off in the 10th minute
When these two last met the game was settled by a penalty. Verona were the better side, creating the better chances with a higher shot volume, but a late penalty decided it. Some sites will show 1.51 xG for Sassuolo in that game but they’re likely counting the penalty and the rebound which he scored. Strip those away and Sassuolo generated practically nothing
