Braga vs Lazio
Over 2.5 Total Goals at 1.73 with Betfair SB - 2 units
Lazio have secured direct passage to the R16, have nothing to play for here, and come into this game with a depleted squad.
However, they will still carry a significant threat, with Castellanos, Dia, Tchaouna, Del-Bashiru, Pedro, and Noslin all expected to start.
Braga are in a difficult spot here and simply have to win to have a chance of making the KO rounds, so this could turn into an entertaining game.
Braga have strong attacking numbers at the Quarry in Europe. Over the last 12 months, their European games here have averaged 2.4 xG per 90, with 17.5 attempts on goal per game.
Lazio are a step up in quality, but Braga will look to take advantage of Lazio’s depleted midfield.
Domestically, Braga have strong attacking output, ranking 4th for npxG, 2nd for chance quality, 3rd for chances p90 from set-pieces, and 2nd for chances p90 from counters.
Lazio’s UEL games this season have averaged exactly 3 goals per 90, with the Biancocelesti scoring 2.43 p90.
Similarly, Braga’s home UEL games have averaged 3.29 xG (combined).
Gigot is expected to start for Lazio at CB tonight. Based on Serie A data (just 2 starts), Lazio give up a much higher xGA when he’s on the pitch.
Cup GK Mandas has also conceded at least once in 3 of his last 4 outings for Lazio—the exception being against Ludogorets, when he faced 0 shots.
With only a win sufficing for Braga and zero pressure on Lazio, this one should go over the 2.5 line.
