Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace to win at 1.88 with Pinnacle - 1 unit (min 1.85)
Pinnacle not an option for you? Bet105 has the same price minus 1 tick, identical limits, no KYC and they’re VPN friendly. If you’ve been limited or can’t get an account where you need one, they’re the answer to a lot of people’s problems right now. Myself and Will both bet with them and we’re happy to put our names to it, you can sign up here.
Palace have won 6 of their 8 European home games over the last 12 months. The two draws came against KuPS (2-2) and AEK Larnaca (0-0), and they won the xG in both, 1.92-0.41 and 2.43-0.00
Across those 8 games they’re averaging 2.43 xG for and 0.80 against, with 17 scored and 4 conceded
English clubs have won 14 of 15 at home in Europe this season, Man City’s 4-2 defeat to PSG the only slip
Hoffenheim are not what they were. They’re a proper mid-table Bundesliga side now, and if they were in the EPL they’d be somewhere around Sunderland or Ipswich
Sharp money has been against them all season and we can see on Steamwatch they’ve been heavily opposed 4 times in the past 30 days
Team news doesn’t look good for the Germans either. Coufal and Hložek are both out after starting seven of eight Bundesliga games, and they’ll also miss Conté (two goals, two assists). With Gendrey injured too, 18-year-old Abraha is in line to start at right-back just five days after his Bundesliga debut
Palace get two regulars back in Quinten Timber and Jørgen Strand Larsen, who’ve started eight games apiece this season. That gives them more options up front in particular: Strand Larsen has four goals, and Mateta can still lead the line because his ban only applies domestically
Domestically Hoffenheim been outscored 2.25-1.25 on the road this season and none of those games came against top sides
In Europe they lost away to OFI and at home to Besiktas. The 3-0 over Lyon looks decent on paper until you realise Lyon rolled out almost a complete B team