Liverpool vs Lille
Jonathan David Over 0.5 Shots + Over 0.5 Fouls at 1.8 with Bet365 - 2 units
David is suspended for their next Ligue 1 match, so he will likely play the full 90 minutes here.
Liverpool are likely to rotate, and with this being a somewhat meaningless game for them, the intensity could drop. Low motivation might also be a factor, giving Lille their chances.
If we exclude Lille’s game against Sporting (due to an early red card), David has averaged over 2.5 shots per 90 minutes in his European matches this season.
The young Canadian is also reportedly in the shop window, so a strong performance on a big stage could boost his prospects.
He’s been a big-game player this season, recording 2 or more shots in their matches against Juve, Atleti, and Real Madrid, while also scoring in each of those games.
I also like the fouls angle here. In their big UCL games this season, he committed 2 fouls in each match.
Only André and Diakité have committed more fouls than David in the Lille squad.
Domestically, he is committing 1.12 fouls per 90 minutes and has recorded at least one foul in 11 of his last 13 matches.
David often commits fouls when contesting high balls floated into him, usually against the defender marking him. He also tends to foul after losing possession, especially when the opposition looks to transition quickly.
