Cagliari vs Frosinone - Saturday
Over 3 Total Goals at 1.87 with Betfair Exchange - 1 unit (min 1.83)
Bet105 and Pinnacle 1.85
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Frosinone have been a lot of fun this season. They have the fourth-best attack in the league on underlying output, ahead of Milan and Atalanta, and they rank dead last for xGA, which is a nice recipe for an overs team
Frosinone games are averaging 4.53 xG per match, 2.03 for and 2.50 against, and 3.8 actual goals
On the road the defence falls apart, conceding 3.14 xG per away game, and their away games are averaging 4 goals
Three of their last four league games have produced 6, 8 and 6 goals, with a 5-1 against Lecce, a 4-4 at Atalanta and a 4-2 against Sassuolo. The chances back that up, with those three matches generating 3.95, 6.06 and 4.86 xG, so we’re looking at almost 5 xG per game
Cagliari are close behind, giving up 2.10 xG and 16.9 shots per game, and they have already allowed 22 or more shots four times this season
Cagliari are without two of their most established defenders, with ever-present Obert suspended and Mina, who started 26 league games last season, ruled out. That pushes Rodriguez across to left-back and hands Kofler his first Serie A start of the season at centre-back
Frosinone are a gift for any home attack, leaking goals in three of their four trips so far, so Cagliari should be good for at least one goal here
Both defences are living on borrowed time. Frosinone have conceded 14 goals from 25.0 xGA and Cagliari 15 from 20.97 xGA, so between them they are 17 goals better off than the chances say
Cagliari sit 17th on our ratings while their 13 points have them 12th in the table, and their last two games produced 3 and 6 goals, including a 4-2 defeat at Roma