AC Milan vs Bologna
Over 2.5 Total Goals at 2.16 with Betfair Exchange - 1 unit (min 2.1)
Pinnacle 2.11
We attacked Bologna’s last game for goals and are doing the same here. Under Palladino their games have been more open, with 11 goals in his opening 4 games, 6 of them scored by Bologna.
As mentioned in the last preview, Bologna have moved away from sterile possession and now want to play more vertically and get the ball forward quicker.
That approach leaves them more exposed at the back, with Bologna conceding 1.53 xG a game under Palladino, up from 1.05.
Bologna have been poor against the elite sides in Italy for a while, with 1.9 goals given up per game in their last 10 against the top 6, so there is potential for Milan to score multiple times here.
Milan have changed too. Amorim is playing a more attractive brand of football than Allegri, and this season in Serie A Milan are scoring 2.00 and generating 2.09xG per 90, compared to 1.39 and 1.64 last season.
At San Siro under Amorim, Milan are averaging 2.29 xG and 60% possession across three league games, and they’ve scored eight. Their games there are averaging 3.33 goals off 3.28 total xG. Under Allegri last season it was 1.21 goals a game at home, and only 6 of 14 went over.
Milan won 3-0 at the Dall’Ara in February off 3.17 xG, and that was a far more cautious Milan side than this one.
The goals per game average in Serie A is 3.12, up from 2.43 last season.
There are defensive question marks on both sides. Milan are missing Gila and Gabbia, while Bologna could rest Skorupski and reshuffle their back line, which could disrupt their defensive organisation.
Milan could also reshuffle quite heavily, which helps explain the big move towards the under, but we think the adjustment is a little exaggerated. We expect an XI along these lines in a 4-4-1-1: Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlović, Estupiñán; Hutchinson, Musah, Jashari, Bartesaghi; Cissé; Gonçalo Ramos.