A solid midweek’s UCL card, but don’t get me started on Roma! I was concerned they could run out of steam after playing 40mins vs Como with 10 men on Sunday, but it was still the correct bet IMO.
Sometimes, markets and line moves just don’t make sense, and Inter Milan vs Club Brugge was a market that left me confounded. My numbers made the game somewhere between Inter -1.50 and Inter -1.75, and despite adding an extra unit on Brugge +2.00 (having earlier bet Brugge +1.75 2.09), I can’t help but think that we weren’t aggressive enough in not making it a max 4u bet. Whilst adverse selection is certainly an important factor in betting - and a certain amount of regression to the market/respecting the market should be considered - I can’t help but notice a handful of markets a month where line moves just don’t make sense. Even after 26 years of being a profitable, professional gambler, I still find that it can be challenging assessing these moves when you’re already on the side that the market’s moving against - and it’s very easy to talk yourself out of adding to the position.
Another phenomenon that I’m grappling with is the rise in goal expectancy in European football. We picked up the edge early in the season, particularly in Serie A, and benefited somewhat, however I’m still not sure that markets have adjusted enough. Whether it’s stylistic (higher, more aggressive presses), technical (shooting mechanics, general level of skill), analytical (worth ‘risking’ 1 point to potentially win 2 when drawing) or something else (>time ball in play, the ball(!?)), the game is almost certainly, systemically, evolving in a way which is resulting in more goals. 7 of today’s 9 UCL matches went O3.50. At the same time, I feel like it’s harder to pull the trigger when O/U 3.50 is the new O/U 2.50.
Anyway, hope you guys are enjoying the content and please consider subscribing to our full service if you haven’t already. I continue to be genuinely humbled that 3,000 people are interested in hearing our thoughts regarding the beautiful game 🙏.
Cheers,
Will
I don’t have the time to research bets in a way I would like and although I’ve been gambling for a while now I’m still a mere novice compared to most and have never worked in the gambling industry. I do though have an analytical mind and for that reason I genuinely enjoy reading your thoughts and insights. I haven’t signed up purely because I have to make my betting self sustainable and fund subscriptions through winnings as my wife isn’t keen on gambling and the truth is I’m not in a position to subscribe yet. I love taking the opportunity to read these little snippets of where your minds at though, even when selections aren’t included so may I take the opportunity to thank you for that. Keep up the good work and I hope that your knee is well on the way to being back to normal.