Greece +1.00 Asian Handicap at 2.00 with Pinnacle and Bet105 - 2 units (min 1.96)

• Greece are up to 24th in the World on Elo ratings and rank 22nd for the most valuable International squads in the game today ahead of the likes of Uruguay, Nigeria, Japan etc

• From the last round of UNL games we saw them defeat Serbia with a monster underlying xG, beat Germany rather fortuitously (but must be stated defended excellently) drew with the Netherlands in a game they probably should have won and then drew 0-0 with Germany with another robust defensive display

• Netherlands will be without their defensive leader and captain Van Dijk here as well as Hato, Aké, Brobbey, Gravenberch and the long time absentee Xavi Simons

• The Netherlands were more porous in their last UNL games under new coach Xavi with 1.48xGA per 90, with Virgil out I wouldn’t be surprised to see Greece create something similar or higher

• Remarkably, the Dutch have kept just a single clean sheet from competitive football over the last 12 months, that came at home to Lithuania who are the 7th worst team in UEFA

• Serbia lost all four of their group games and still put up 1.54xG and 1.49xG in their two meetings with the Dutch

• Greece haven’t lost by more than a single goal in any of their last 10 games, and they are unbeaten in their last 5 on the road with wins in both Germany and Serbia

• Germany and the Netherlands took 57 shots across their three games with Greece and generated just 4.72xG from them, about 0.08 per shot

• From their last 30 competitive games the Netherlands have won by 2 or more goals 10 times, those came against Malta (twice), Finland (twice), Lithuania, Hungary, Bosnia, Romania, Sweden and Tunisia

• Against everyone else in that sample they have 4 wins from 17, all by a single goal, with 10 draws

• Poland came to Amsterdam last year, sat in a 5-4-1 low block and held them to 0.72xG in a 1-1 draw

• All things considered we think the value is with the Greeks again.

Over 3 Total Goals at 1.87 with Betfair Exchange - 1 unit (min 1.83)

Bet105 and Pinnacle 1.85

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• Frosinone have been a lot of fun this season. They have the fourth-best attack in the league on underlying output, ahead of Milan and Atalanta, and they rank dead last for xGA, which is a nice recipe for an overs team

• Frosinone games are averaging 4.53 xG per match, 2.03 for and 2.50 against, and 3.8 actual goals

• On the road the defence falls apart, conceding 3.14 xG per away game, and their away games are averaging 4 goals

• Three of their last four league games have produced 6, 8 and 6 goals, with a 5-1 against Lecce, a 4-4 at Atalanta and a 4-2 against Sassuolo. The chances back that up, with those three matches generating 3.95, 6.06 and 4.86 xG, so we’re looking at almost 5 xG per game

• Cagliari are close behind, giving up 2.10 xG and 16.9 shots per game, and they have already allowed 22 or more shots four times this season

• Cagliari are without two of their most established defenders, with ever-present Obert suspended and Mina, who started 26 league games last season, ruled out. That pushes Rodriguez across to left-back and hands Kofler his first Serie A start of the season at centre-back

• Frosinone are a gift for any home attack, leaking goals in three of their four trips so far, so Cagliari should be good for at least one goal here

• Both defences are living on borrowed time. Frosinone have conceded 14 goals from 25.0 xGA and Cagliari 15 from 20.97 xGA, so between them they are 17 goals better off than the chances say

• Cagliari sit 17th on our ratings while their 13 points have them 12th in the table, and their last two games produced 3 and 6 goals, including a 4-2 defeat at Roma

Crystal Palace to win at 1.88 with Pinnacle - 1 unit (min 1.85)

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• Palace have won 6 of their 8 European home games over the last 12 months. The two draws came against KuPS (2-2) and AEK Larnaca (0-0), and they won the xG in both, 1.92-0.41 and 2.43-0.00

• Across those 8 games they’re averaging 2.43 xG for and 0.80 against, with 17 scored and 4 conceded

• English clubs have won 14 of 15 at home in Europe this season, Man City’s 4-2 defeat to PSG the only slip

• Hoffenheim are not what they were. They’re a proper mid-table Bundesliga side now, and if they were in the EPL they’d be somewhere around Sunderland or Ipswich

• Sharp money has been against them all season and we can see on Steamwatch they’ve been heavily opposed 4 times in the past 30 days

• Team news doesn’t look good for the Germans either. Coufal and Hložek are both out after starting seven of eight Bundesliga games, and they’ll also miss Conté (two goals, two assists). With Gendrey injured too, 18-year-old Abraha is in line to start at right-back just five days after his Bundesliga debut

• Palace get two regulars back in Quinten Timber and Jørgen Strand Larsen, who’ve started eight games apiece this season. That gives them more options up front in particular: Strand Larsen has four goals, and Mateta can still lead the line because his ban only applies domestically

• Domestically Hoffenheim been outscored 2.25-1.25 on the road this season and none of those games came against top sides

• In Europe they lost away to OFI and at home to Besiktas. The 3-0 over Lyon looks decent on paper until you realise Lyon rolled out almost a complete B team

Villarreal +1 Asian Handicap at 1.95 with Pinnacle - 1.5 unit (1.91 min)

Bet105 at 1.93

• We don’t believe PSG should be so short here with 4 key starters missing. Kvara, Marquinhos, Mendes, and Dembele won’t play any role in this game

• Let’s start with Dembele, he’s a big deal, he has 6 G+A this season in 3 UCL matches, last season he had 10 G+A in the UCL from 11 starts

• PSG scored 2.67 goals per game across all comps with him on the pitch last season (2.31 was their average). This season that all comps number is up to 3.08 goals per 90 with him on the pitch

• Next Kvara, 16 G+A in last season UCL and 2nd only to Dembele for goals overall

• Mendes probably the best LB in world football had 7 assists and 6 goals in all comps last season and will be another loss as will their defensive leader and captain Marquinhos

• PSG should line up like this: Safonov - Hakimi (c), Zabarnyi, Pacho, Hernandez (or Zaïre-Emery) - Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz - Akliouche (or Godts), Torres (or Mayulu), Doué

• As we can see their attacking output should be severely hit here, Akliouche, Godts, Torres, Mayulu, Doué are good players but not at the level of the players unavailable and let’s not forget the role Barcola played in those last two UCL campaigns too.

• Now PSG are weaker defensively too and they are missing two key pieces here, across all comps PSG are allowing 1.75xGA per 90

• Remarkably PSG have kept just two clean sheets this season, away to Brest and at home to Lyon.

• Villarreal haven’t lost by more than one goal all season, that’s 14 games across all comps including Liverpool (4-3), Dortmund (3-2), Real Madrid (1-0) and Atletico (2-2), all away from home.

• They’ve scored in all 3 UCL games, 3 at Anfield, 3 against Napoli and 2 in Dortmund, that’s 8 goals in 3 games. In La Liga they’ve been a lot better than their results show, averaging 2.05 xG per game (2.87 xG away to Atletico, 3.16 at Alavés, 2.51 against Elche) and only 15 goals from 11 games to show for it

• Villarreal score against the better sides too, 11 goals in 6 games against Liverpool, Napoli, Dortmund, Real Madrid, Atletico and Betis. PSG’s back line without Marquinhos and Mendes is weaker than most of those

• Last season’s disaster UCL campaign might have put you off this team but worth remembering they ended the league phase with a +0.4xGD per 90 at home, and only got xG’d by one team… Man City